Posted on: December 28th, 2008 Loans to Chrysler and GM Part III-Side Bets Are The Real Addiction

Not a lot of what is happening with the Chrysler and GM bailout and rush to turn GMAC into a bank holding company makes business, financial or economic sense.  It does not make business sense because President Bush and Prime Minister Harper are asking for restructuring plans from auto executives who have proven over decades that they can’t come up with them.

It does not make financial sense because Chrysler and GM are exposed to significant obligations from the on and off-balance sheet risk of their financing arms–Chrysler Financial and General Motors Acceptance Corporation (GMAC).   Their extensive involvement with asset and mortgage backed securities (ABS and MBS) and related derivatives is going to absorb any taxpayer backed funding as quickly as it can be advanced.

It does not make economic sense because the extensive non-manufacturing needs of automakers is going to bleed resources away from jobs, production, and pensions.  The support the public thinks is going to workers and their communities through government loans–support that would make economic sense–will not materialize.  Valuable time and money will have been wasted.

It does not make sense, that is, until we acknowledge “the monster in the room”.

Concomitant with the rise in asset and mortgage-backed securities, and other clever financing vehicles, such as collateralized debt obligations (CDOs) of the kind that got Citigroup into trouble, there have been trillions of dollars of credit default swaps written (CDSs) against the success of The Big Three during the past five years.

CDS’s are insurance type contracts where the buyer, for a premium, can bet against the success of a company by taking out coverage against the default of its debt.   If the company goes into bankruptcy, or experiences any other form of credit event as defined in the contract, such as a downgrade, the buyer can collect on the policy.  To purchase protection, the buyer doesn’t have to own any stock in the company, or its debt; the buyer doesn’t have to have anything at risk to place a wager that the company will fail. If they are right, they get paid—assuming that is that the seller (companies like AIG, Citigroup, JP Morgan Chase) has enough capital to pay them.

It’s impossible to know exactly how many contracts there are against the success of Chrysler, GM or Ford. They are traded over the counter and hence are unregulated. However, since the notional value of the credit default swap market is about $45 trillion, and the bond market has been concerned for years about the credit worthiness of automakers, these contracts must be substantial.  In 2006, according to Fitch Ratings and the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, the top referenced entities for volume of protection written were General Motors/GMAC at number one, Daimler/Chrysler at number three and Ford Motor Corp./Ford Credit at number six. The word on the street is that GM alone has $1 trillion in bets against its solvency.

Just take a minute to think about that.  If GM goes into bankruptcy, buyers of protection are going to call for payment on their insurance policies requiring banks and other CDS underwriters to cover $1 trillion in obligations.  Only a portion of these obligations relate directly to debt holdings of GM; say for example when a bank lends money to GM and then hedges its risk by taking out an insurance policy to cover any losses it may incur if GM fails to pay back the loan.  The rest, they are just side bets.

In 2006 the total debt recorded on GM’s balance sheet was $44 billion–a long way from $1 trillion.  Even if you add in the debt on GMAC’s balance sheet of $237 billion, there’s still a lot of insurance to be collected from speculative activity.  The remaining credit default swaps–the speculative side bets–are essentially wagers against the success of the economy.  They are what’s soaking up all the credit.  Speculators have short sold GM, Chrysler and Ford, and wittingly or not, the capitalist system.

The financial firms who wrote the protection on automakers do not have enough reserves to cover them.  This is similar to what happened with the sub-prime crisis and all the credit default swap protection written on mortgage-backed securities.  As insurance claims are made, underwriters (banks, investment dealers, insurance companies and hedge funds) scramble for whatever capital they have available.  When its not there they call for resources from taxpayers.  Real, productive, economic activity suffers–credit for authentic business and consumer demand dries up while the credit default swap monster is fed.

Unfortunately it appears that our current political leaders, ready to write checks that we honor, are not primarily concerned about people’s job or their pensions, or the horrific effect layoffs, plant closures and dealership terminations will have on communities across North America.  If they were they would take a different course of action than ensuring the credit default market is made whole.

They would be ensuring the safety of employment and the funding of pensions, not loaning vast quantities of money to companies who flow it through complex interlocking relationships to pay off derivative side bets while protecting their compensation plans.  The impact the failure of the credit default swap market is having on a few financial firms and wealthy investors is really what concerns the republicans and conservatives.  They want to make sure their colleagues are bailed out of the consequences from short selling North America while the rest of us suffer.

If they wanted to help workers and support real economic activity they would be focusing their efforts on manufacturing and job security. But, just like the auto executives who for years ignored manufacturing and production basics in favor of high finance, Bush and Harper are ignoring jobs and communities in favor of even higher finance.

Something meaningful could be done with very little cash on the line. Why not a joint venture between U.S. and Canadian taxpayers to buy Chrysler and GM outright with a plan to sell them to employees in the years ahead?  According to Cerberus, Chrysler’s 80% owner, Chrysler isn’t worth anything, so we could just take it off their hands.  And Daimler has written its 20% stake in the company down to zero. GM’s market cap is about $2.2 billion—Canada’s share would only be $440 million. At least the public could be assured industry renewal, jobs, pensions and getting financing to consumers would be the priorities in future decisions; not executive compensation, management fees, interest payments, and making whole investors in risky asset-backed securities and credit default swaps.

As far as the financing arms of automakers; cut them off before their contagion spreads further into the viability of industrial activity. Steps in that direction have already been initiated by turning GMAC into a bank holding company. Let’s be strategic about it and maintain some control and discipline on who gets paid and why they get paid.

As far as CDS side bets—it would be easy enough to pull the senior executives of the banks, securities firms and hedge funds into a room and impart to them the need to declare null and void all contracts that represent a side bet against the success of the economy.  That is, any CDS, where the holder has no direct interest at stake other than the desire to short sell capitalism, should be torn up.  Call it a stand against economic treason.  After all, contracts are made to be broken, just ask the auto workers.

Netting out CDS contracts that have no material benefit for the future of the economy is what is needed.  Instead of bringing down our economic system with the looming obligations,  we would constrain the damage and authentically get the economy running again.  The credit crunch–it’s the sound of the monster eating.  It’s time to stop feeding the monster.

Filed under: Economic Crisis

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